Poland: Election Upsets Polls – Karol Nawrocki Elected President
Poland has made its choice. With 50.9% of the vote (10,606,877 ballots), Karol Nawrocki has been elected President of the Republic, narrowly defeating Rafał Trzaskowski, who secured 49.1% (10,237,286 votes). The victory is clear in numbers but defied expectations: exit polls on election night predicted the opposite outcome, sparking surprise and controversy.
Could it be that declaring support for Nawrocki at polling stations was seen as socially taboo? Or do the polls reflect the political leanings of those who commission or interpret them rather than objective reality? Either way, the turnout of over 20.8 million voters signals strong public engagement in a deeply polarized election.
The country split along geographic and cultural lines. Nawrocki dominated in the economically challenged eastern regions, where themes of national identity and practical economic concerns resonate strongly. In contrast, Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s mayor and a liberal-progressive figure, prevailed in the more prosperous west, where voters lean toward progressive ideals, including radical-chic trends, secularism, LGBTQ+ rights, and a globalist outlook.
The campaign was also shaped by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s involvement, which many deemed overly intrusive. His remarks—hinting at issues of justice and the courts—were seen by some as pressure on institutions, especially amid the controversial judicial reforms initiated by PiS, which aimed to curb privileges and usher in a new generation of judges.
The diaspora vote proved pivotal. Participation among Poles abroad surged, with increased registrations by the May 7 deadline for permanent residents. Add to that 44,521 voters temporarily abroad via certificate and 172 votes cast aboard ships. Trzaskowski dominated the expat vote, securing 64% (383,722 votes) to Nawrocki’s 36% (220,637). Yet in countries with well-established Polish communities, often organized through networks like Wspólnota Polska, the patriotic candidate prevailed, while elsewhere, the diplomatic apparatus—largely appointed under Tusk’s government—played a significant role in organizing the vote.
Karol Nawrocki, like most Poles, presents himself as a committed European while staunchly defending traditional values. Trzaskowski, on the other hand, embodied a post-national, ideologically driven Europeanism, symbolized by his proposals to remove crucifixes from public buildings and establish Europe’s first museum dedicated to gender culture.
In Poland, the presidency is far from ceremonial: it holds legislative veto power, which can only be overridden by a qualified parliamentary majority—a threshold the current liberal-dominated Parliament is unlikely to meet. Nawrocki’s election thus ushers in a period of institutional cohabitation, balancing the power of Tusk’s government.
Poland now enters a new political chapter, one that will likely reverberate across Europe. In a Union grappling with deep tensions, the clash between identity and globalism is increasingly central, and Poland’s trajectory may serve as a bellwether for the continent.
Simone Billi, Lega Party leader in the Foreign Affairs Committee and member of the Council of Europe delegation for election monitoring in Poland
